Jig's BetU Racing Preview - Victoria Derby

Jig previews the greatest day of genuine Group 1 racing "World wide" the Victorian Derby Day! 

Jig
October 29, 2021
October 29, 2021

The greatest day of genuine Group 1 racing "World wide" has arrived. Victorian Derby Day! 


With an intriguing edition of the Derby this year for the 3YO's , we dissect the main chances along with identifying some real value on the outstanding support card at  Flemington.

🇦🇺 FLEMINGTON 🐎


⭐Race 6, G1, $2,000,000 Victorian Derby, 2500m.


#9 HITOTSU is a smart horse, who after last preparation, was transferred to the powerful Ciaron Maher stable, who have a remarkable record at getting horses out over a trip.


His run in the G1 Caulfield Guineas (quickest Guineas of ALL TIME) was a beauty and while he didn't posess the finishing sprints of Anomoe (beaten a lip in Cox Plate since) , Artorious and co, his work past the post was most impressive!! 


He does have to jump from 1600m to 2500m which is some little query, but I'm doubting the stable or the breed (Maurice) ability to achieve this with bells on! 


He's a very good horse, the fresh horse on the scene with plenty of upside and I'm heavily in his corner each way at the $6.5 mark ($9 into $6.5 past 24hrs). 


The Goldolphin galloper #3 ALEGRON ($10) brings different form lines, but good form lines through star 3YO Profondo, who would be a short priced favorite if he was lining up in this!  While he doesn't possess an electric turn of foot, he should have absolutely no dramas with the trip, and he is bound to be grinding away very strongly at the end of 2500m.


#10 CERBERUS ($35) could be the blowout in this at the big price!!?? While he draws terribly, I feel he will go back anyway, mind his own business and have one late go at them at the 200m mark...  He has improved with each and every run, and I think he also has a nice turn of foot, which could play a big factor in his chances if he is able to run out the 2500m...  Keep him very safe in wider exotics..



#1 FORGOT YOU ($4.5) has had an outstanding campaign and is just a tough little bugger and a real little iron horse !(Have to be with this stable to survive).


If he hasn't had "one" too many gut busters this prep, then it would be silly to ignore or leave him out of anything.. ! He can win..



4th Emergency in the race #20 SPIRIT OF GAYLARD ($34), is a very very good horse, but will unlikely make the final field come Saturday morning.. If he does make, the field, he is my 2nd selection in the race behind Hitotsu.



🏆- #9 HITOTSU  ($6.5)


🥈- #3 ALEGRON ($10)


🥉- #1 FORGOT YOU ($4.5)


4️th - #10 CERBERUS ($35)




⭐Race 5, G1, $1,000,000, Empire Rose Stakes, 1600m.


One of my favorite races for the day.. A big G1 mile race for the best mares in the country. 


We were heavily in the corner of star mare #1 COLETTE ($7) last time , when she aborted Caulfield Cup plans, dropped back in distance, back in class, and throttled them like the good mare that she is. 


She has the right fitness base on her side and while we would love a heavy downpour race day for us to get really keen, I think she has been disrespected in the markets at ($7)...   


She's an exceptional mare and at level weights, against her own sex, I can see her class shining through here and running over the top of them again strongly at the business end of the 1600m. 


#2 MYSTIC JOURNEY has had a lovely prep aimed around this race and she's a real Flemington horse. She closed off very strongly last time and along with COLETTE & TOFANE, they look the three class mares of the field.


🏆- #1 COLETTE ew ($7)


🥈- #2 MYSTIC JOURNEY ($5.5)


🥉- #3 TOFANE ($3.4)


4️th - #13 FLYING MASCOT ($9.5)




⭐Race 7, G1, $1,500,000, Coolmore Stud Stakes, 3YO, 1200m.


A magnificent edition of the Coolmore Stud Stakes, with a lot on the line (especially the colts) for the star 3YO's. 


A field of 17 youngsters will tear down the famous Flemington straight course, and most likely break up into two groups on the flat side and outer rail... (Nightmare to know who's in front until the final 200m)


#6 PAULELE ($7) has had a super campaign and looks the ideal type to target for this rich straight race. He's a terrific athlete, with an explosive turn of foot and Damien Oliver takes the reigns.


#14 MARINE ONE ($35) looks the big value chance in the race for mine. He draws ideally up the straight course, from gate 11. 


The stable change this prep, has improved him "Lengths" and he's finally showing his true potentially.  He was ridden arrogantly last time, when he had panels on a medicore line up at Mooney Valley, but like many Ciaron Maher gallopers this Saturday, he has sixth sense of timing about him this guy and a terrific blow out chance at big odds! 


#2 ARTORIOUS ($9) always frightens the hell out of me, when I'm not in his corner, and this race is no different. 


He more often than not, has more excuses than 'Daniel Andrews' in each and every one of his runs, but with a likely hot tempo on up front, he will be able to tail them in this, put a bullseye on PAULELE back and look to motor over the top of them late and beat them! He is OHHHH SOOOOO CAPABLE!



🏆- #6 PAULELE ($7)


🥈- #2 ARTORIOUS ($9)


🥉- #14 MARINE ONE ($35)


4️th - #9 EXTREME WARRIOR ($4.2)




⭐Race 9, G3, Begonia Belle Stakes, 1100m.


Not one of the biggest races on the day, but nevertheless, a very exciting way to finish off a magnificent card of Group racing! 


I loved the recent jump outs of two horses in this race that present terrific each way value at odds! 


Both horses I'd be keen to play on here each way are the Sydney-siders #7 WRITTEN BEAUTY ($17) and #6 MARBOOSHA ($14)


Both have performed very well up the straight when coming south of the border and there recent jump outs at Flemington suggest they are right on track to peak here again!  



https://www.vrc.com.au/jump-outs/?day=2021-10-22&heat=2


(Written Beauty- Jump out above, white silks, runs 2nd)



https://www.vrc.com.au/jump-outs/?day=2021-10-22&heat=4


(MARBOOSHA- Jump out above, red silks, runs 2nd)



🏆- #7 WRITTEN BEAUTY ($17)


🥈- #6 MARBOOSHA ($14)


🥉- #1 SEPTEMBER RUN ($5.5)


4️th - #10 MILEVA ($11).




🏆BEST BETS 🏆


Traralgon R1 no2 DUBAI NIGHTS * 


Flemington R1 no3 PRIX DE TURN ($3.7)


Flemington R5 no1 COLETTE ew ($7)


Flemington R6 no9 HITOTSU ew ($6.5)


Flemington R8 no3 SUPERSTORM ew ($10)




 🥷BEST OUTSIDERS 🥷


Flemington R7 no14 MARINE ONE ew ($35)


Flemington R9 no7 WRITTEN BEAUTY ew ($17) & no6 MARBOOSHA ew ($14)


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