Jig's BETU Racing Preview - Melbourne Cup Day

After a HUGE Derby Day, Jig gives his preview for Melbourne Cup day.

Jig
October 31, 2021
October 31, 2021

After a HUGE day for the team on Derby Day, we attack Melbourne Cup day with a stack of confidence in a couple on the support card and we think we have trimmed the chances in the Melbourne Cup down to 5 chances..

🇦🇺 FLEMINGTON/CUP DAY🏇


⭐ RACE 1, Maribyrnong Plate, 2YO, 1000m.


Terrific race each year to get Cup Day off and running with the 2YO's lining up over 1000m up the Flemington straight..


I've had 3 or 4 of these nice/unraced youngsters "Black Booked" from there jump outs, so I'd be keen to play on a couple of these as they look over the odds for mine... 


The 3 horses that really impressed me at the jump outs were #9 QUINLAN ($10), #10 WATER BOMBER ($7) and #4 DEEP POINT ($6).


I was particularly taken by the Waterhouse trained QUINLAN'S most recent jump out at Flemington.  He's a lovely big strong Colt and he looks to have had the work poured into him for this debut run. 


WATER BOMBER & DEEP POINT also couldn't of been much more impressive in there jump outs, and both look really well educated and bomb proof type colts that will be suited by the straight track racing..


Of the tried/exposed form, it's impossible to put a line through the Goldolphin pair in #3 RENOSU ($4.5) & #2 LASCARS ($6.5) who both finished behind smart horses on debut in Kiki's Express and Get In The Spirit who look like very smart 2YO's.



🏆-#9 QUINLAN ($10)


🥈- #4 DEEP POINT ($6)


🥉- #10 WATER BOMBER ($7)


4️th - #3 RENOSU ($4.5)




⭐ RACE 3, THE GREYS, 1400m.


Ahhhh we love this race each year! 🦄


A 1400m race for only "Grey" horses 😬👏


The "Best" all day lines up here in- 

 #3 HOUSAY ($3.2)... His most recent jump out was arrogant! He looks to have come back super this time in, and this race clearly a long term/first up plan for him! He will take a power of beating against this lot! 


The other horse that creates interest from the jump outs and one I want to save on, is the Laming trained galloper #4 EXCELMAN ($7.5) each way. He also looks primed and set to run a huge one in this going by his jump out and he's the only threat to HOUSAY'S chances in my view. 


#7 STANDOFF ($15) Is a Flemington specialist and I thought his run first up in much better grade wasn't bad!! He only finished a tad over 3 lens behind smart sprinters like La Mexicana, Dirty Thoughts and co last start and he clearly needed the run in prep for this target race... Big top 3 chance.


#2 MR TIPLA ($10) has run in everything except the Berriwillock to Woomelang bike race in the past 2 years, but from a good gate, he should get a great run in transit and we all know his rock hard fit (hasn't had a spell for 6 years 😆)




🏆- #3 HOUSAY * ($3.2)


🥈- #EXCELMAN ($7.5)


🥉- #7 STANDOFF ($15)


4️th - #2 MR TIPLA ($10)





⭐ RACE 4, Cup Day Plate, 1800M.


Tricky race, but I've got a bit of time for this 5YO mare #9 GROOVY KINDA LOVE ($6.5)... She has come back a better, more mature mare this time in and I loved her win last start at Ballarat when she rounded them up off a tough run and thrashed them. D.Lane sticks..  The one to beat.


#4 CHARLEISE ($6.5) is the other one in this race I think you can have something on each way, from the powerful Maher/Eustace stable.. Lovely run last start at G3 level in Sydney when only beaten 1.7 lens behind the smart Mirra Vision... Big chance here! 


#7 LORD VLADIVOSTOK is flying and a deserved favorite in this... Hard to see him not figuring here.


#6 SKYMAN draws gate 1 and should do no work in the run... He loves this track and last run behind the flying 'Thought Of That' was good.... He can taper off the longer he gets into a preparation is my one concern with him though?? 





🏆- #9 GROOVY KINDA LOVE ($6.5)


🥈- #4 CHARLEISE ($6.5)


🥉- #7 LORD VLADIVOSTOK ($3.7)


4️th - #6 SKYMAN ($5)




⭐ RACE 7, LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP, 3200M, $7,750,000. 


The race that stops the nation! 🇦🇺🏆


Always a great race to watch with a ton of variables and unknowns to unpack! 


Let's be honest, Its not the greatest version of the race we have ever seen and there's 10 horses in this that have absolutely NO CHANCE! Like none... 


With that all being said, the top end of the quality is still very very good and the top 4 or 5 might clear right out here and beat the rest by a margin! 


#2 INCENTIVISE ($2.6) is a freak and his run in the Caulfield Cup was arrogant/incredible! What a horse he is!! 


He draws a tricky gate again here in barrier 16, and he has to carry a big weight over 3200m!?? It's not going to be easy for him, especially if he's caught out wide, punching the breeze over this trip! 😳..   It's impossible to knock him, but I think he's rock bottom odds at ($2.6)...


#3 SPANISH MISSION ($8.5) is the European with a real dash of class on his side, and most importantly, proven over this trip!! It's Ohhhh sooo important when narrowing down the top chances in the race... 


He has had to undergo a couple of small vet inspections since arriving, but he seems fine or they wouldn't run..


 The one thing we can 'all' be assured of, is the Europeans have mastered bringing the right horses to Australia for the big ones and there staying ability and general class far out weighs Australia's, who are heavily obsessed on breeding over priced sprinter/milers... 


#22 FLOATING ARTIST ($15) is the joker in the pack here and extremely well weighted to win... The kid has butchered the life out of the poor thing his past 2 runs, but he's been terrific late and the trip should be of no concern..... I think you need to have something small on him at odds, I expect him to run a big big race here and finish top 5.



🏆- #3 SPANISH MISSION ($8.5)


🥈- #2 INCENTIVISE ($2.6)


🥉- #22 FLOATING ARTIST ($15)


4️th - #24 SIR LUCAN ($23)




⭐ RACE 9, TAB Trophy Stakes, 1800m.


Really like #6 SPIRIT OF GAYLARD ($3.7) in this....He was 4th emergency in the Derby and didn't get a start, but I had him as my 2nd pick in the Derby had he got a start behind (Hitotsu- Bless him 😁).


This is a much softer race for him and I've been really looking forward to him getting to the big wide open spaces of Flemington. 


His run last start at the Valley, which is a track that doesn't suit his big long striding action, was a cracker! He's a very progressive horse and one of the better bets on the whole card! 


#9 OENOLOGY ($9.5) Is the one I would be saving on at the good each way price on offer... He's still a big baby this horse, but he's very progressive! Much like Spirit Of Gaylard, he will love the big open spaces of Flemington.



🏆- #6 SPIRIT OF GAYLARD * ($3.7)


🥈- #9 OENOLOGY ($9.5)


🥉- #13 STATION ONE ($9.5)


4️th - #5 SEBASTIAN THE FOX ($23)




🏆BEST BETS 🏆


FLEM R3 no3 HOUSAY*** ($3.2)


FLEM R4 no9 GROOVY KINDA LOVE ew ($6.5)


FLEM R5 no4 BLONDEAU ew ($4)


FLEM R9 no6 SPIRIT OF GAYLARD*** ($3.7)




🏆MELB CUP SELECTIONS🏆


🏆- SPANISH MOON ($8.5)


🥈- #2 INCENTIVISE ($2.6)


🥉- #22 FLOATING ARTIST ($15)


4️th - #24 LORD LUCAN ($23)


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